DOUG SCHOEN: Trump's Iran strategy could ignite long-awaited regime change. My Serbia experience is a guide

With President Donald Trump s extraordinary decision to attack three of the key critical Iranian nuclear sites two questions emerge First how will the Iranian populace react to the decision Second will this hurt or help the chances for regime change Of unit we will not get answers to these questions right now But I think it s fair to say that history in the not-so-distant past offers an instructive guide to what could well happen While it is challenging at this point to answer these questions with a high degree of certainty there is one historical analogy which I was deeply involved in that may provide insights TRUMP HINTS AT REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN WHILE DECLARING 'MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN' AFTER US STRIKESMore than years ago while working in the Bill Clinton administration I was one of the principal actors advising the State Department on the situation in Serbia There I led on-the-ground efforts to demonstrate to the Serbian opposition that President Slobodan Milosevic could be beaten At the time plenty of in both the U S and Serbia thought that nearly -days of NATO bombings and the Kosovo war had produced a rally around the flag effect in favor of Milosevic And yet the polls I conducted conclusively demonstrated the opposite The details revealed that despite efforts by the regime to portray Milosevic as strong and popular he was extremely weak with a unfavorable rating As was acknowledged in the Washington Post at the time the strategic guidance I provided based on those polls led to the growth of a campaign that soon toppled a regime minimal thought was quite so vulnerable HERE S WHAT A POST-AYATOLLAH IRAN COULD LOOK LIKE IF WAR WITH ISRAEL LEADS TO REGIME S FALLThere are striking parallels between Milosevic s downfall and the situation the Khamenei regime finds itself in nowadays In both there are specific who feel that foreign airstrikes would strengthen nationalist sentiment in favor of a regime that prioritizes projecting an aura of popularity despite being incredibly disliked by its citizens Further in Serbia we revealed that there was pervasive anger towards the establishment particularly over the poor state of the commercial sector In Iran there is similar if not even more intense dissatisfaction with the regime s chronic mishandling of economic and national approach To be sure polling figures from inside Iran is limited although Stasis a firm which specializes in conducting methodologically-sound surveys in the country issued a poll last October that is telling They unveiled that nearly -in- Iranians feel that the cabinet s policies are to blame for the country s economic struggles Additionally in a country of million where roughly are under the age of the same poll shows that more than three-quarters of Iranians believe that Iranian youth do not see prosperity for their future in Iran All of this is to say that like Milosevic s regime the Iranian ruling body appears to have strong popular endorsement but underneath the surface is extremely weak and vulnerable MOMENTUM FOR REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN SURGES AMID ISRAEL'S CONFLICT WITH TEHRANFor a large number of the idea that Israel and especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could bring about regime change in Iran is hard to take seriously But a more detailed examination of the current situation as well as Iran s own fresh history supports the notion that Netanyahu could be more accurate than not Consider the history Since there have been nationwide protest movements with millions of Iranians taking to the streets against the ruling body And while there was a wide range of causes for those protests from blatant voting fraud to the the bulk fresh demonstrations set off by the killing of Mahsa Amini they all underscore widespread opposition to the current regime In that same vein much like I saw in Serbia the large number of protests and their various causes reveal a significantly large opposition that under the right conditions can effectively mobilize and pressure the regime To that end whereas we had to actively organize those movements in Serbia those conditions are already evident in Iran and on a much greater scale NETANYAHU CALLS ON IRANIAN CITIZENS TO SEIZE 'OPPORTUNITY' FOR REGIME CHANGEAside from the bleak future facing Iran s youth the regime s oppressive laws towards its nearly million female citizens have turned virtually one-half of the population into second-class citizens with little to lose from rising up as hundreds of thousands did during the Mahsa Amini protests Underscoring just how deep the hatred is towards the regime Iran International has released receiving letters expressing personal thanks to Netanyahu and the Jerusalem Post stated than an Iranian source reported them This war has greatly strengthened and revived new optimism among Iranians for regime change The Post s source inside Iran continued saying that conversations around the capital city Tehran are focused on the final days of the regime and that they brought it on themselves Outside of Iran the debate has already begun On one side are leaders such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as journalists like former National Defense Advisor John Bolton and Yorktown Institute President Seth Cropsey PENTAGON FLEXES US MILITARY'S DECOYS AND STRATEGIC DECEPTION THAT TOOK IRAN AND WORLD BY SURPRISEThose men have argued Bolton and Cropsey in the Wall Street Journal and Netanyahu speaking to Fox News Bret Baier and in other forums that this is the largest part opportune moment for regime change in Iran since the revolution in Given the deep reservoir of anti-regime sentiment among the Iranian people the argument goes the best discipline of action is that Israel s destruction of the regime s military and symbols of power will give Iranians the courage to rise up united against the governing body On the other side of the debate are those such as French President Emmanuel Macron Haunted by failed regime change efforts in Iraq and Libya Macron cast doubt on the possibility for success in pursuing regime change saying it would development in chaos Chosen have also argued that Israel s actions could create a rally around the flag effect and spark nationalism among the Iranian people To be clear while both sides have legitimate arguments based off my experience in Serbia I believe that Netanyahu and those on his side have a much stronger circumstance CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINIONThe Iranian regime is weaker than ever before after Israel destroyed virtually its entire chain of command and remains in total control of Iranian skies Likewise unlike Libya and Iraq Iran has a well-organized opposition with a much more established sense of national unity than either Iraq or Libya ever had Taken together there is strong evidence underpinning Israel s belief that the Iranian regime could fall especially given Israel s extreme caution in only targeting symbols of the regime in order to avoid stoking nationalism Of lesson there are risks in encouraging regime change and it s not at all guaranteed that the next regime is the one the West wants It could very well outcome in a more extreme regime led by remnants of the Revolutionary Guard hard-liners However it is a mistake of similar magnitude to dismiss this chance out of hand History has shown that when an oppressed people angry at their cabinet find their confidence and are supported even only by air power the outcome need not be chaos or the survival of the current establishment It has and could again outcome in genuine regime change In both cases of Iran and Serbia there was widespread bombing of the country and indeed the civilians with collateral damage on the civilian population In the Serbian episode all of the net results was that it strengthened the resolve of the Serbian people to rid themselves of an authoritarian dictator Milosevic And in the Iranian situation if history is any guide it will weaken an already fragile regime and hopefully provide an outlet for the millions of Iranians who want a greater measure of freedom and peace in their lives CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM DOUG SCHOEN