Midterm elections are as unpredictable as ever, as 2026 looms

Everything changes everything Late Baltimore Orioles Hall of Fame Manager Earl WeaverDetermining the political landscape for next year s midterm elections may prove to be impossible At least right now Midterms have become increasingly challenging to decipher in current cycles A learned Democratic Capitol Hill hand explained me after the historic -seat bloodletting by House Democrats in that the electoral process was un-modellable Midterms are usually a obstacle for the party of the President NEW RNC CHAIR JOE GRUTERS VOWS TO RIDE THE PRESIDENT ALL THE WAY TO SUPREMACY IN MIDTERMSThat noted Democrats only lost a meager House seats in directly following the Cuban Missile Problem which nearly brought the U S and Soviet Union to nuclear blows Democrats lost a staggering House seats in the first and only midterm of late President Lyndon Johnson But the electoral rapture barely dented the robust House majority Democrats controlled House seats before the midterms seats afterwards Still a at ease margin Very sparse political observers expected Democrats to lose control of the House in the legendary midterms mainly because the party held the House for consecutive years It was nearly unthinkable that Democrats could lose the House solely because it had not happened in decades Democrats and other political observers excoriated the brilliant Michael Barone when he was the lone commentator to forecast that a Republican flip of the House could be in the offing come the fall of Barone was right as Republicans collected seats Republicans nearly lost control of the House in the midterms after they impeached former President Clinton Republicans then bested the historic norms in and held the House boosted by pro-GOP sentiment following Democrats managed to win back the House in following a similar playbook they deployed in when they also captured control of the House Democrats ran a number of moderate ex-military or national shield Democrats often in battleground districts The relative unpopularity of President Donald Trump didn t help Republicans either Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy R-Calif and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich R-Ga boasted that Republicans may capture anywhere from - seats in the midterms Republicans did win the House but barely CALIFORNIA REPUBLICANS SUE TO STOP NEWSOM DEMOCRATS FROM PUSHING REDISTRICTING PLANWhich brings us to The party of the President historically loses around seats in their first midterm Since President Trump is only the second commander in chief to return to office after a hiatus late President Grover Cleveland was the first serves as a de facto first midterm Trump and the Republicans lost House seats in his true first midterm But calculating what to expect next year is nearly impossible Republicans now hold a to majority in the House with four vacancies Three of those seats are solidly Democratic for now So for the sake of argument let s say the breakdown is to Democrats must only flip a net of three seats to claim the majority It s not that easy First off we barely understand the playing field In baseball it s feet between the bases feet inches to the pitcher's mound Major League Baseball even standardized the size of the dirt infield a couple of years ago As we head to the playoffs we know the Milwaukee Brewers and Detroit Tigers are excellent The New York Mets and New York Yankees should be really good but they ve stumbled The Philadelphia Phillies are excellent but just lost starting pitcher Zack Wheeler to a major injury Who could surprise down the stretch The Cincinnati Reds and Kansas City Royals are hardly out of it Everyone understands the general variables of Major League Baseball as October nears That is not the circumstance with the midterms Texas Republicans are now determined to redraw Congressional districts to favor a GOP pickup of five seats President Trump has endorsed similar efforts to tilt the field in favor of Republicans in GOP-strongholds like Missouri Ohio and Indiana California Gov Gavin Newsom is threatening to upend the present maps in favor of Democrats in the Golden State New York Democrats may try the same in the Empire State So we don t even know the basics How far from the plate to the mound in the midterms How large is the strike zone Five balls for a walk or the standard four Twelve players in the field or nine Redistricting could also hamper Republicans forcing the party to suddenly defend a number of more competitive seats Democrats could suddenly have more opportunities where none existed in But we aren t sure Maybe everything is status quo and Democrats only need to flip those three seats We also don t know how the relative unpopularity of President Trump may impact voters He historically defies political gravity Plus the Democratic brand remains utterly toxic Party registration is down for the Democrats big time POLITICAL ANALYST SAYS DEMOCRATS ARE ALREADY WORRIED ABOUT THE 'BIG PROBLEM' OF WINNING BACK VOTERS FOR That announced could Republicans reap the benefits of passing the hallmark of their legislative agenda the One Big Beautiful Bill Certain conservatives doubt that the GOP has sufficiently sold the inhabitants on that provision especially during the August recess Democrats are banking on the possibility that the rule will backfire on the GOP in next year s midterms We also don t know if President Trump not being on the ballot in is similar to the Republican midterm performance in It s clear that not having Mr Trump on the ballot in undercut the party at the polls Republicans could also face a backlash from moderates and swing voters if they are dissatisfied with the performance of the President We certainly saw that after voters tired of the polices of former Presidents George H W Bush in Bill Clinton in George W Bush in and Barack Obama in And we have an entire months before voters head to the polls next year There could be another foreign plan emergency involving the Middle East Tensions with Russia over Ukraine are volatile There are host of probable events ranging from soundness procedures to the financial market which could set the table for the midterms Lots to consider It s all in play Everything changes everything observed the sage Earl Weaver Or perhaps we should turn to New York Yankees legend Yogi Berra In baseball you don't know nothing