ROBERT MAGINNIS: Don’t be misled—Iran isn’t days away from a nuclear bomb
As tensions between Israel and Iran escalate the airwaves are full of alarmist commentary Military analysts and political leaders alike are warning that Tehran is on the brink of possessing a nuclear weapon White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt even claimed Iran has all that it requirements to achieve a nuclear weapon and it would take a couple weeks to complete the production of that weapon This is not just a misstatement It is misinformation and it risks pushing the United States into a hasty and unjustified war HOW CLOSE WAS IRAN TO A NUCLEAR WEAPON BEFORE ISRAEL S STRIKE ON TEHRAN The reality is far more complex Enriched uranium even at weapons-grade levels is only one component of a long technically demanding process required to create a functional nuclear bomb Understanding why this alarmism is premature requires a clear breakdown of what s certainly involved in building such a device According to U S experts and declassified intelligence assessments a nuclear weapon requires at least the following elements In addition to enriched uranium and implosion mechanisms a functional nuclear weapon requires several other complex components that Iran has not demonstrably mastered These include a neutron initiator to trigger the chain reaction precision fusing and arming systems and reentry carriage hardware if the weapon is to be missile-delivered A credible nuclear arsenal also demands sub-critical testing infrastructure to validate design functionality and safety protocols to control explosive yield These technical requirements involve advanced engineering testing and materials none of which are authenticated to exist in Iran s project currently Each of these approaches represents a serious technological challenge While Iran has demonstrated enrichment capabilities there is no credible open-source evidence that it has mastered the other essential components The most of complicated hurdle weaponization remains the largest part classified and technically advanced part of the entire process Yet Israel s new week of strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities including the deeply buried Fordow enrichment site near Qom were reportedly driven by fears that Iran had crossed the enrichment threshold Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Iran now possesses enough enriched uranium for nine nuclear weapons and the IDF s Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned of an immediate operational necessity as Iran had reached the point of no return However the International Atomic Ability Agency IAEA and U S intelligence assessments have not publicly corroborated any progress toward assembling a usable bomb The Fordow facility often portrayed as a doomsday site is not a weapons lab It is an enrichment plant too deep to strike easily but also too constrained to test assemble or launch a nuclear weapon That fact alone should prompt the question Why strike now Netanyahu s warnings are not new In he described NBC s Meet the Press that Iran would have enough material for a bomb in six or seven months urging the U S to draw a red line before it was too late The dire prediction never materialized No bomb was built No red line crossed The episode offers a lesson in how worst-case scenarios not verified facts can drive the conversation Before the United States commits to military action President Trump and the American people deserve clear answers Does Iran possess the necessary components the design knowledge and the maximum to assemble and deliver a functioning weapon Or are we risking war based on fear and incomplete intelligence We have been here before In the U S invaded Iraq over weapons of mass destruction that did not exist That war cost thousands of lives almost three trillion dollars to the present destabilized a region and damaged U S credibility for decades To repeat such a mistake would be strategic malpractice of the highest order CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINIONNone of this downplays the threat Iran poses The regime s sponsorship for proxy militias its ballistic missile undertaking and its pattern of obstructing IAEA inspections are deeply troubling But deterrence and diplomacy not preemptive war must be the first response The United States retains a full suite of tools cyber operations regional missile defense economic sanctions and multilateral diplomacy Military action should remain the final option not the opening move As Australian novelist Kate Forsyth reminds us War is an unpredictable beast Once unleashed it runs like a rabid dog ravening friend or foe alike Let us not unleash that beast over uranium that is dangerous but not yet detonatable President Trump Congress and our intelligence public must deliver a full honest accounting What does the United States know not suspect about Iran s nuclear readiness What pieces are still missing What tools short of war can ensure they stay missing These are the questions that must be answered before another missile is fired Panic is not a guidelines Precision is CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM ROBERT MAGINNIS
