Trump brokers Iran ceasefire as experts say regime’s arsenal is shattered but threat remains

In a historic turn of events Iran agreed to a ceasefire Monday following a limited strike on a U S military base in Qatar The agreement brokered by President Donald Trump marks a dramatic de-escalation after days of war Even as the ceasefire deal seems to be teetering experts say Iran s decision to step back reflects the heavy toll its military infrastructure has taken in the wake of coordinated U S and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites missile stockpiles and key production facilities Iran cannot win this war mentioned Danny Orbach a military historian at Hebrew University They ve lost roughly of their launchers Even if they still have around long-range missiles without enough functioning launchers they can t deploy them effectively TRUMP ANNOUNCES HISTORIC IRAN AND ISRAEL CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT TO END ' DAY WAR'According to U S and Israeli leaders the attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar the largest U S base in the Middle East caused no casualties and only minor damage The strike appears to have been meticulously calibrated The strike in Qatar was coordinated with the Americans and was not intended to impress or cause real harm claimed Sima Shine a former Mossad official and senior Iran expert at Israel s Institute for National Shield Studies Iran still has weapons but it doesn t want to draw the U S into an all-out war And they know closing the Strait of Hormuz will end badly for them What has largely remained intact is Iran s short-range capability disclosed Blaise Misztal vice president of procedures at the Jewish Institute for National Shield of America JINSA These are thousands of rockets missiles and drones that can t reach Israel but can absolutely hit U S bases in Qatar Iraq Bahrain and the UAE That s what we saw in the strike on Al Udeid Misztal added that Iran s remaining arsenal is well-developed and available in far greater quantities than its long-range weapons The danger isn t just to U S forces Iran can still target power infrastructure major cities and commercial shipping across the Gulf TRUMP HAILS MONUMENTAL' DAMAGE AS EXPERTS AWAIT VERDICT ON IRAN S NUCLEAR PROGRAMIn a review for JINSA retired General Frank McKenzie former commander of U S Central Command warned that American bases in the Gulf are critically vulnerable to Iranian missile and drone saturation attacks He noted that installations like Al Udeid are just minutes from Iranian launch sites leaving little time to react and called for a strategic shift westward and stronger missile defense integration with regional allies to overcome the tyranny of geography As the U S repositioned several aircraft and ships ahead of the expected Iranian retaliation Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Dan Caine substantiated that defense measures had been bolstered across Iraq and Syria Analysts say the real reason for Iran s climbdown is the sheer scale of its losses Orbach explained that Iran is now facing what military theorist William Tecumseh Sherman once described as a range of bad choices They don t have the money to rebuild everything he disclosed They ll have to choose between restoring their missile campaign supporting proxies or reviving their nuclear infrastructure They can t do it all Iran remains the world s leading state sponsor of terror Misztal added They ve plotted assassinations on U S soil before They ve carried out attacks globally Misztal stated And they ve invested heavily in cyber since the Stuxnet attack in Strength infrastructure regional systems even U S targets they re all vulnerable Will Iran learn enough of a lesson from these attacks to moderate its behavior It seems unlikely Misztal added I think their hope is that regardless of how this ends or what happens to their nuclear plan they can return to their usual pattern of aggression using proxies and indirect attacks throughout the region and beyond This regime is built on Death to America Death to Israel That hostility is central to its identity and it can t abandon it without losing legitimacy