Trump tariffs push India closer to America's strategic rivals China and Russia

For more than two decades Washington and New Delhi built a strategic partnership that was hailed as one of the great success stories of post Cold War diplomacy In current times that relationship is facing its majority serious test in years and India is signaling it has other options We re in a situation in the U S -India relationship where the premises and assumptions of the last years that everybody worked very hard to build including the president in his first term have just come entirely unraveled mentioned Evan Feigenbaum a South Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The trust is gone Since President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Indian imports New Delhi has turned visibly eastward India s national defense adviser traveled to Moscow in modern weeks its foreign minister is visiting this week and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi just concluded talks in Delhi Prime Minister Narendra Modi is preparing for his first trip to China in more than seven years while Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to host him in Moscow before the end of the year The pivot underscores how tariffs meant to punish India for its continued purchases of Russian oil may instead be pushing New Delhi closer to America s rivals TRUMP AND PUTIN S RELATIONSHIP TURNS SOUR AS PRESIDENT PUSHES FOR RESOLUTION WITH UKRAINETrump slapped a tariff on Indian imports earlier this year citing India s willingness to keep buying Russian crude On August that tariff is set to double to Indian general opinion has bristled at what plenty of see as U S interference in sovereign decision-making They re signaling very clearly that they view that as interference in India s foreign guidelines and they are not going to put up with it Feigenbaum announced Despite initial hesitation state-run refiners resumed Russian oil purchases lured by discounts of to Russian oil now accounts for of India s imports up from a negligible before the Ukraine war Moscow for its part has seized the opening We continue to ship fuel including crude oil and oil products thermal and coking coal stated Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov We see likely for the export of Russian LNG TRUMP S DEADLINE ON SECONDARY TARIFFS ARRIVES US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS HANG IN THE BALANCERussia is using the rift to promote its vision of a great Eurasian partnership linking Moscow Beijing and Delhi All of this engagement we re seeing between India and China now is not exclusively coming because of Trump and his tariffs explained Michael Kugelman a Washington-based South Asia analyst We ve veritably seen indications for almost a year of India wanting to ease tensions with China and strengthen relations mainly for economic reasons But the Trump administration s policies have made India want to move even more fleetly Selected of India s moves are diplomatic theater meant to signal anger at Washington But others are more durable India is going to double down on certain aspects of its economic and defense relationship with Russia Feigenbaum commented And those parts are not performative Kugelman noted that before the Ukraine war India had already begun reducing its reliance on Russian arms imports in favor of U S French and Israeli systems But as soon as the invasion happened India very hurriedly started buying more from Russia particularly potency he declared This is essentially validation of a view in India that the U S can t be trusted whereas Russia can because Russia is inevitably going to be there for India no matter what Modi has used the standoff to reinforce his image at home as a defender of sovereignty India veritably made a fair number of concessions to the Trump administration early on in its second term Kugelman declared citing tariff reductions and agreements to repatriate undocumented workers Because of those concessions India necessities to be careful about signaling further willingness to bend This is one reason there was no business deal Modi put his foot down While not directly criticizing Trump Modi has emphasized that his priority is protecting the livelihoods of farmers small businesses and young workers That defiant tone Kugelman added has real political mileage in India s domestic debate The Trump administration has shown no signs of backing down Former White House exchange advisor Peter Navarro blasted India s oil purchases as opportunistic and deeply corrosive in a Financial Times op-ed this week This two-pronged framework will hit India where it hurts its access to U S markets even as it seeks to cut off the financial lifeline it has extended to Russia s war effort Navarro wrote If India wants to be treated as a strategic partner of the U S it requirements to start acting like one INDIAN PRIME MINISTER MODI TAKES PAGE FROM TRUMP SAYS 'MAKE INDIA GREAT AGAIN ' OR 'MIGA'The contrast with the U S India relationship of two decades ago could not be starker In the two countries struck a landmark civil nuclear deal that gave India access to American machinery and fuel despite not being a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty India put the entire governing body on the line for the deal Feigenbaum recalled Bush really went to the mat and provided a lot of assurances to Congress that were politically not easy but he was willing to take risks for the relationship At that time Washington and Delhi managed to work around their disagreements The U S objected to a great number of aspects of India s relationships with Iran Burma and Russia Feigenbaum disclosed India objected to aspects of the U S relationships with China and Pakistan But neither side let that bleed back into the bilateral relationship in a utterly debilitating way For years the U S has viewed India as a democratic counterweight to China s authoritarian model central to its Indo-Pacific strategy under Obama Trump and Biden But now the question is whether that glue still holds Both sides agree that countering China is the main glue that has really bound this relationship together over this -year period Kugelman explained But the tensions largest part of which are on the commerce side have begun to spill over into the broader partnership He noted that India will continue to see China as a long-term competitor because of edge disputes and Beijing s alliance with Pakistan Those realities make it hard to imagine India no longer seeing China as a threat he revealed So the rationale for the Quad remains But if the U S India relationship continues this free fall it will be very hard to sustain Talks on new defense cooperation are still on the calendar But for now Kugelman warned trust has eroded You talk about defense cooperation intelligence sharing that requires a lot of trust And given what s happened over the last scant months that might be a harder sell for the Indians Feigenbaum sees India s latest maneuvers as a reversal of past dynamics Then India was leveraging its partnership to signal to then-foe China that it had options he noted Now they re working with the Chinese to signal Washington rather than the other way around The message is clear India will pursue its interests on its own terms even if that means drawing closer to America s rivals